Arctan Research is an independent quantitative research firm developing systematic equity strategies based on regime-conditional factor selection and advanced risk-management methodologies.
Quality stocks do not outperform unconditionally — and neither does the quality signal. The quality premium is regime-dependent: in calm markets, investors reward profitable companies benefiting from normal cycles and credit availability; in periods of stress, they seek protection in stronger balance sheets; as crises fade, undervalued companies are bought back.
Arctan was built to identify which regime is active and adapt both its portfolio choices and its overall exposure accordingly — knowing when to increase risk and when to cut it.
Machine learning in finance faces three structural problems that cannot be dissolved — only managed through calibrated design choices guided by domain expertise.
Curated features. A vast, regime-specific set of factors drives asset prices. We heavily pre-process financial and economic signals using decades of empirical experience, giving machine learning a constrained, interpretable space to learn in.
Regime conditionality. Economic history offers a single timeline — no experiments, no reruns. We partition that timeline into regimes, apply regime-dependent feature weighting and portfolio construction, and use variable exposure to curtail risk sharply at dangerous regime boundaries.
Continuous monitoring. Relationships between variables drift and break. We run a battery of statistical signal-quality tests at every rebalancing to detect degradation and trigger re-estimation or risk reduction before damage compounds.
Former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Brazil and Chief Investment Strategist at wealth manager WHG, responsible for global asset allocation and quantitative analysis. Previously held Managing Director positions at UBS and Nomura, leading emerging-markets and fixed-income research and strategy. He began his career as an emerging-markets fixed-income and FX trader at several banks, including Bank of America, and is today also an Adjunct Professor of international economics at Georgetown University.
He combines deep macroeconomic understanding with quantitative research methodology to develop systematic equity strategies based on regime-conditional factor selection and advanced risk management.
